Uncertain Certainty

2024 Market Review

November 29th, 2024

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Where 2023 choked buyers out of the market, 2024 brought some breathing room.

Even in the uncertainty of the election & volatility of the economy, the market showed certainty of one thing: people still want to own homes.

It didn’t start this way though.

In October 2023 Tacoma had seen its first significant decrease in annual home value.

This 4.7% reduction originated from buyers ‘freezing’ in the market; the interest rate to purchase price ratio gave everyone whiplash. Uncertainty gripped the housing market.

However, it didn’t take long for things to start moving again. Buyers were fed-up with waiting for interest rates to drop.

A mere 6 months later Tacoma home values climbed from an average of $477,940 to $548,085 in April 2024.

Unfortunately, the math worked against buyers waiting in the wings for interest rates to drop.

Buyers who purchased in October 2023 may have had an 8% interest rate, but home values in Tacoma averaged at $477,940.

But by Spring 2024, buyers faced multiple offers & bidding wars even as interest rates averaged at 7.5%.

So when values climbed to $548,085 in April 2024, in order to get the same ‘average’ house, buyers would need to pay ~$300 more a month.
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The difference between 8% and 7.5% in 6 months was not enough to universally compensate for the value increase.

NOTE: I cannot stress enough the importance of accurately evaluating your financial means even when the rest of the world is screaming assumptions at you. Especially when it’s screaming.
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It’s not that people who waited till spring made a mistake, it’s that most buyers didn’t even know they had another option. The math is counterintuitive & that option could have been their best decision.
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But buyers don’t get to know what they don’t know unless they receive concrete info, based on their actual finances, from an expert.

Back to the Data...

Average Single-Family Value Increases

Washington State saw an 8.25% increase in home value and Peirce County saw a 9.97% increase.

Tacoma's substantial 15.8% increase in average home value since October 2023 made October 2024 only $6,000 short of the highest historical average from April 2022.

This is largely due to the same reasons people have always been moving to Tacoma: it’s more affordable than the bigger PNW cities while still having plenty to offer its citizens.

Notably, Pierce County broke a record. As of August 2024, Pierce County’s average home value hit $656,481 – surpassing it's 5 year highest point in April 2022 of $644,564.

Inventory Changes

Tacoma also had a 5.8% increase in available inventory in 2024 vs 2023. Pierce & WA State remained nearly identical in inventory in 2024 as they did in 2023.

However, not all inventory is equal.
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If buyers are spending 6-8% on interest rates, they want to love their house. Buyers will wait for something they believe is worth the cost. More inventory does not directly translate to ‘more inventory the majority of buyers want’.

Overall, the market is more balanced. Even as values increase, there are more opportunities for buyers to get more out of a purchase.

Homeowners

The market hasn't crashed. You didn’t buy at a ‘bad time’. The market is designed to increase over time; dips & plateaus don’t mean you’ve made a poor investment.
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It’s still worth it to renovate, leverage equity, & make smart plans for your financial future. I’m here to help with all of these. Remember, if you’re my client, my support is completely free.

Buyers

The market hasn't crashed. Waiting for ‘the perfect time’ in the market doesn’t exist.
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The investments you make today create the world you live in tomorrow. This doesn’t mean you buy today, but it does mean that you can decide today to use real data to plan for your future.
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​There have been more opportunities for buyers to get more out of a purchase. ​
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For example, my buyers this year got an average of $7,000 cash back from sellers, an average of $3,000 worth of inspection work done & an average of $5,000 in walk-in-equity (they paid less than the appraised value).

Sellers

The market hasn't crashed. AND the best time to sell will always be relative to your specific property & area.
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You may think it’s best to list in March, but when expertly analyzed, it’s actually May that reaches your goals.
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Remember, the best time to sell is 1) When you want/need to sell 2) When you’ll get what you need to move on to your next chapter– whether that’s out of necessity like a divorce or pursuing your dream of a house with a water view. Either way, you can still receive a solid, strong offer. ​
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Critical Thinking: Question the Data

Always question the criteria & origin of the data you use.

Everything I've shared with you is for “single-family residential” directly from the NWMLS, the database that holds all property data in WA State.
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You may hear other numbers that contradict what I’ve shared. But if their data includes commercial, vacant land, & multi families, then it doesn't mean much to the practical reality of someone with a single-family-home.

Making smart, informed decisions always starts with discerning the difference between what’s being said & what’s actually happening.

Reach out to learn what’s actually happening in your neck of the woods.

- Hannah-Clarke Gilmore

Your Referrals are my Bread & Butter.